Hopeful Signs Appear in Solving a Post-Soviet Impasse

February 2, 2006
New York Times
By C. J. CHIVERS

MOSCOW, Feb. 1 — Negotiations for a peace settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh, the contested region in Azerbaijan that slipped into war as the Soviet Union collapsed, have gained ground recently after years of stalemate, raising the possibility of an agreement this year, diplomats familiar with the talks say.
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The International Crisis Group, an independent organization that assesses conflict areas, said in a report last year that the occupied region, nearly 12,000 square miles, holds "one of the world's most militarized societies" and risks sliding back to war.

But diplomats involved in recent negotiations say there is now a possibility of a settlement. They have been preparing for a meeting in France of President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Robert Kocharian of Armenia on Feb. 10 and 11, with hopes they will agree to a comprehensive plan.
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No one as yet is predicting success, and Azerbaijan signaled reservations before the mediators' arrival. But several diplomats said there remained the potential for agreement.
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One possible plan would involve a withdrawal of Armenian-backed military forces from much of the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh, accompanied by international security guarantees and an international peacekeeping force. At a later date, the diplomats say, a referendum could be held to determine Nagorno-Karabakh's political status.
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Keith Jinks, a spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said the proposal also covered other issues, including the creation of a secure corridor in and out of the area, return of displaced civilians, reconstruction of infrastructure and clearance of land mines.
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Because so much complexity remains, diplomats familiar with the proposals also cautioned that even were Mr. Aliyev and Mr. Kocharian to reach an agreement, working through details would require at least several months, and might lead to a fresh impasse.
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Sabine Freizer, the author of the International Crisis Group's report, said the Azerbaijani position has hardened as the country has gained wealth and frustration has grown. "There is a level of belligerence that is just incredible, because they think that ultimately they can win," Ms. Freizer said.

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