Dwindling?: Data suggests unhealthy future for Armenian nation

Jun 29, 2007
ArmeniaNow.com, Armenia
By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

According to United Nations demographic data, by 2025 Armenia’s population will decrease by 25 percent, due to current social patterns.

Since independence, the country’s birthrate and number of marriages has dropped by nearly half. The need to increase the birthrate was included in some political parties’ platforms in the recent parliamentary campaign.

The trend is seen as a national security threat, considering that Azerbaijan anticipates 31 and Turkey 43 percent increase in population by 2025. (The difference for Armenia’s neighbors, researchers say, is due to current trends as well as religious and cultural factors.)

Insecurity and social hardship make many Armenians, especially men, leave and try their luck somewhere else.

“The dynamics of Armenia’s main demographic index gives rise to serious concerns. Besides the fact that the population keeps decreasing, the demographic structure changes as well- the number of young people is dropping, and that of the elderly is growing. Social burden gets heavier, which bodes ill for the country,” says the Head of the Armenian Social-Demographic Initiative Ruben Yeganyan stating that demographic indices are highly important for understanding the country’s further economic possibilities and defense capability issues.

If before 1990s about 80,000 infants were annually born in Armenia, today that number has dropped to 37,000. Concurrently the death-rate has grown, from 22,000 in 1990 to 27,000 in 2005.

According to Karine Kuyumjyan, head of the Census and Demography department at the National Statistical Service, during the post-Soviet years marriage number showed drastic decrease.

In 1990s when the population was 3.5 million 28,000 marriages per year were registered, whereas today the figure is only 16,500-17,000 marriages out of 3.2 million population (by the 2001 census data)

According to sociologist Aharon Adibekyan, head of the Armenian Center for Independent Sociology “Sociometer”, it’s not as if people in Armenia don’t want to get married and have children, but are hindered by social condition.

“Who cares for Armenia’s demographic situation? They will start thinking when it will be impossible to recover it, when there won’t be any boys left to take to the army,” says Adibekyan.

For now the birthrate is higher than death-rate by 10,000, but demographer Yeganyan predicts from demographic viewpoint that in 5-10 years the number of deaths will exceed that of births.

According to Yeganyan, Armenia lacks a demographic policy and both direct and indirect factors influence deterioration of the situation.

One of such factors is migration. In the last 15 years, as the National Statistical Service data show, 900,000 people have migrated out of the country, 65 percent of which are men of reproductive age and work capacity, this resulting in a disproportion of sexes.

If in the past the 2-3 children families were a model, now the new tendency model is one child, or at best, two children families, which, as ethnographer Hranush Kharatyan believes, is mostly a result of unfavorable social conditions rather than a change of tradition.

“The ideas about a traditional family have not undergone essential changes, as in European countries. Today, too, the majority of our youth wants to get married and form a family, and by a family they understand one with children. But they don’t know whether they can support those children- there is no trust in the future,” Kharatyan says.

Psychologist Svetlana Arutchyan assures that the effect of moral-psychological atmosphere in the decrease of birth-rate is extremely important; however it (the effect) can be reduced if, for example, the state takes some steps to improve our economic situation.

“People feel defenseless here and naturally avoid having children in a country where they are not sure their child would have a secure childhood. Everything starts at maternity hospitals: if you don’t pay the doctor properly, you can’t be sure your child would be born healthy, without traumas,” says Arutchyan.

In 2005 the state took a step to stimulate the birthrate by passing a law on medical assistance to pregnant women at all medical institutions to become free of charge.

Nonetheless that law, as many others, remained on paper, and in reality having a baby has become a very expensive undertaking. At Yerevan maternity hospitals delivering a child costs in average from $300-400, with additional costs for the commonly-practiced “C-section”.

Housing has also become a problem. In the Soviet times the state provided young families with apartments by the principle of putting them on a waiting list. Today, young couples instead face the capitalism reality of mortgage – which few can afford.

“If a family has two sons, one of them is married and lives with his parents, then the other will avoid marrying, as it is very hard for three families to live together. This results in decreased number of marriages and a higher number of divorces,” says Adibekyan.

Research held in 2005 on Armenia’s demographic and health issues says that 70 percent of 6,500 surveyed women of reproductive age answered they were not planning to have more children.

“The state has to take serious measures before traditions shift so that when the country develops, social issues are solved, they won’t have children not because of housing or financial problems, but for lack of time or desire. And that is very hard to fight with,” says Arutchyan.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

ARMENIA IS THE 112TH AMONG THE FAILED STATES

Jun 21, 2007
AZG Armenian Daily, Armenia

Armenia is the 112th according to the Failed State Index made up by the Foreign Policy magazine (USA) and The Fund of Peace.

Iran is the 57th in this list, Georgia – the 58th, Azerbaijan – the 62nd and Turkey - the 92nd.

177 states are included in the research of 2007. The analysts took into account political/military, social, economic, demographic tendencies, internal and foreign conflicts, protection of human rights, presence of refugees and internally displaced persons, system of government and other indicators.

In the Social Indicator part of the page dedicated to Armenia low birth and high death rates are mentioned as negative phenomena: "a drop in the birth rate from 21.6 per 1,000 in 1989 to 10.2 per 1,000 in 2002 coincided with a rise in the death rate from 6.5 per 1,000 in 1989 to 8.5 per 1,000 in 2003".

In the part of Economic Indicator is mentioned that Armenia has a high level of inequality: "The top 10% of the population controls 41.3% of the wealth while the bottom 10% controls only 1.6%".

Although Armenia suffered from negative economic growth during the 1990s as a result of the Karabakh conflict and the collapse of the centrally managed industrial economy left from the days of the Soviet Union, there were positive growth rates from 1995-2005. The economy grew by an estimated 13.9% in 2005.

According to Foreign Policy Armenia is currently hosting about 235,000 refugees from Azerbaijan and also has about 50,000 internally displaced persons resulting from the conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region from 1988 to 1994.

The high unemployment rate is one of the biggest problems of Armenia and is estimated at 32-35% (three times the official figure), the analysts emphasize.

The impunity of the police forces, corruption and excessive concentration of power in the hands of the president are the main political issues that the analysts underscore: "Armenia, like many of the former Soviet Republics, has an authoritarian government and is still struggling with the transition to a market economy. The conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region also remains unresolved. In addition to reaching an agreement with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the government needs to allow greater democracy, uphold human rights, and focus on reducing unemployment to prevent the Armenian workforce from leaving the country or becoming too dependent on subsistence agriculture".

Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Chad, Cote de’Ivoire, North Korea head the list of the Failed States.

The list ends with the most stable states of the world: Norway, Finland and Sweden.

Ireland, Switzerland, New Zeeland, Iceland, Denmark, Austria and Canada are among the last ten states of the list.

By Aghavni Harutyunian

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

INHUMAN CONDITIONS IN PRE-TRIAL DETENTION CENTERS OF ARMENIA

AZG Armenian Daily #071, 18/04/2007

The deputy head of a police department in charge of overseeing public order, Colonel Karen Mehrabian stated today that an inner investigation confirmed the findings of a public monitoring group, an alliance of 11 non-governmental organizations, set up to monitor the situation in pre-trial and detention centers.

Mehrabian said police are working now to eliminate the most crying shortcomings and defects, revealed by the group, while it was visiting the detainees between April-October 2006.

The findings of this monitoring, embracing 50 detention and pre-trial prisons across the country, were presented today in a report, compiled by the group.

Arsen Fidanian, coordinator of the group, said the monitoring was made largely through visits to pre-trial prisons and detention centers, some of which were surprise visits. He said the report was based also on findings of the Office of the Ombudsman and information from some detainees.

He said the main subject of the monitoring was to find out wherther whether people in detention centers were kept legally, what kind of food and medical treatment they received and whether they were subjected to torture or any illegal ways of punishment. According to Mr. Fidanian the most frequent law offence by the police in Armenia is keeping the suspects in the places of pre-trial detention for more than 48 hours, as it is provided by the law. He said that some people are kept there for over a month’s term without being officially found guilty by the court.

The report was sent to police, which examined it for three months and promised to take action to eliminate the reported defects.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

YOUTH GROUP PUSHES FOR CHANGE

4/6/07
EurasiaNet.org
By Onnik Krikorian

Youth in newspaper hats stand on street corners and read aloud from Armenian dailies. Masked young people march by parliament yelling "Don’t Eat Too Much!" at deputies. It’s election season in Armenia, and with the parliamentary vote just over a month away, one unconventional youth group is waging weekly war on widespread political apathy.

Formed in 2003, Sksel a (It’s Started) has an uncertain number of members, but its youth-oriented events in downtown Yerevan have been gaining growing notice. Its target is the 639,950 Armenian voters below the age of 30. Its mission is to show young people that public affairs have an affect on their lives -- the cry to deputies, for instance, was a thinly veiled allusion to allegedly high-levels of government corruption.

The group claims that its purpose is not overtly political, and, at first glance, for many passers-by, the February march through town that also aimed to "wake up society from its winter slumber" appeared to be just a celebration of the traditional Lenten holiday of Barekendan. But hidden among the color and noise which define every Sksel a event, a political message is becoming more evident as the May 12 vote approaches.

Posters calling for the release of recently detained former Karabakh commander, Zhirayr Sefilian, have been on display at recent events, for example. The group’s most recent demonstration was staged to protest the eviction of tenants from their homes in downtown Yerevan to make way for new construction, a topic with political overtones.

Some observers are already trying to make comparisons between Sksel a and Georgia’s Kmara (Enough) or Ukraine’s Pora! (It’s Time!), youth groups that played key roles in those countries’ respective 2003 and 2004 revolutions.

One of Sksel a’s organizers and founders, 24-year-old Arsen Kharatian, understands the motivation for the comparison, but says he is unhappy with it. "I don’t know if we are or not [similar]," Kharatian said. "We mean different things to different people and we will follow our own direction."

Twenty-seven-year-old Mikayel Kazarian, one of the group’s most active participants, has his own expectations of what he hopes will be achieved. "We’re part of the process that will bring change," he told EurasiaNet. "The authorities should feel that they’re being watched by the people. When society is passive, the authorities can do everything and anything they want, and we need to apply pressure to change that."

The authorities, however, have not rushed to second that intention.

Citing previously scheduled outdoor events, Yerevan’s city hall has refused permission for the group to hold an April 14 open-air rock concert, funded, like the February march, by the British Embassy.

Like other observers, Sksel a organizer Kharatian is concerned that such decisions are directly related to the election and attempts by the authorities to prevent alternative groups from holding meetings or staging rallies.

If so, Kharatian argues, the decision is misplaced. "I wouldn’t say that we’re directly concerned with the election as we’ve existed informally as a group since 2003, " he commented, "but there’s no doubt that the country is about to face a major challenge which is why we’ve become so active now."

The group has applied for an alternative date, but has yet to receive a response, he added. A fresh refusal would demonstrate whether or not blocking Sksel a events is "official policy," he continued.

Critics however, contend that many youth are attracted to Sksel a by the possibility of attending free concerts or meeting other young people with similar interests.

While supportive of the group, Eleonora Manandian, one of the leaders of Armenia’s more active student movement during the mid-1990s, comments that interest in politics among Armenian youth runs borderline to nil.

"Young people don’t care, especially when it comes to politics. They don’t think that it is possible for politics to be honest and don’t believe they can change anything even if they wanted to," Manandian said. "And if there are those who are interested in politics, it is only for their own personal careers or financial gain."

Sksel a’s Kharatian observes that "[y]outh in Armenia only become active if it directly relates to them on a personal level, and that’s sad for us, and it needs to change."

Already, some political parties are trying to put that trend to work. Prosperous Armenia Party Youth Coordinator Isabella Shirinian admits that two buses bearing the party’s logo which provide free transportation for students to and from Yerevan’s Polytechnical Institute are designed to target the youth vote. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

To ride the buses, students hand over their identification cards before they are returned some days later. The buses also make unscheduled stops en route at party events and meetings. The implication from party representatives is that students should vote for Prosperous Armenia at the polls, noted one student.

"Elections don’t happen every day, and it shouldn’t be surprising that students take any opportunity given to them to save several hundred drams on travel," said the student, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This happens every election and is the main reason why most young people don’t take them seriously."

Opposition parties also indulge in handouts. One recent story on an election site run by the media assistance organization Internews reported that the Orinats Yerkir Party offered recording assistance to an aspiring young musician in exchange for attendance at party events.

Yet some civil society activists are more optimistic about the possibilities for youth to become involved in Armenia’s political life. The mixture of lighthearted fun and seriousness at Sksel a events, opined Jeffrey Tufenkian, president of the local Armenian Forests NGO and a veteran American environmental and human rights activist, provides a critical opportunity for "positive activism."

Said Tufenkian: "It is actions and initiatives like this which gives me hope for Armenia."

Editor’s Note: Onnik Krikorian is a freelance journalist and photographer from the United Kingdom based in the Republic of Armenia.

Posted April 5, 2007 © Eurasianet
http://www.eurasianet.org

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

Armenia’s Yezidis Split Over Elections

Thursday 22, March 2007
Armenia liberty
By Astghik Bedevian

The approaching elections seem to be deepening divisions within Armenia’s sizable Yezidi community whose often competing leaders have pledged allegiance to three different parties running for parliament.

The country’s largest ethnic minority, which numbers an estimated 40,000 members, has been increasingly courted by some Armenian parties in recent years. Three of them are particularly active in doing that, having included prominent Yezidis on the lists of their election candidates.

A newspaper report last month said that Samvel Babayan, the former military leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, has been named an honorary member of a Yerevan-based organization that claims to represent Yezidis scattered around the world. Its chairman, Aziz Tamoyan, confirmed the report on Thursday, but insisted that the World Yezidi Union did not thereby endorse Babayan and his Dashink (Alliance) party for the May 12 parliamentary elections.

“If I make an endorsement of a particular political leader, I will spread feud within our community,” Tamoyan said. He said he knows which party most Armenian Yezidis, some of whom consider themselves non-Muslim Kurds, will vote for but will refrain from naming it.

However, the fact that Tamoyan’s son, Surik Hajoyan, is 13th on Dashink’s electoral list is hardly accidental. Also, a community newspaper edited by Tamoyan recently ran a front-page article about Babayan that cast the retired Karabakh Armenian general in a highly positive light.

Another Yezidi leader, Yerevan’s former Deputy Chief Prosecutor Tital Jndoyan, is running for the National Assembly on the ticket of the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), one of the election frontrunners supporting President Robert Kocharian. “I think that most members of our Yezidi community will vote for the Prosperous Armenia Party,” Jndoyan told RFE/RL.

Two other Yezidis, one of them also a community leader, are high on the proportional representation list of another populist party led by Tigran Karapetian, the owner and top host of the ALM television station. Karapetian often invites Yezidi children and youths to sing on his live folk shows that are popular with rural residents of Armenia.

Tamoyan admitted that he and many other Yezidis hold the ALM boss in great esteem. But he said this does not mean they will necessarily vote for Karapetian’s People’s Party in large numbers.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

Armenia Adopts Dual-Citizenship Law

February 26, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- The Armenian parliament today overwhelmingly approved the third and final reading of a bill allowing Armenia's large diaspora to hold dual citizenship, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported.

Under the draft law, dual citizenship holders will be able to vote in Armenian elections provided they are registered in the country as residents.

Holders of dual citizenship would be allowed to run in parliamentary and presidential elections after five and 10 years of residency, respectively.

Obtaining dual citizenship would not require conscript-aged men to serve in the Armenian Army.

The country's ruling Republican Party, initially opposed to granting voting rights to members of the Armenian diaspora, backed the bill.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

Armenia seeks to boost population

21 February 2007
BBC News

Armenia's struggling economy needs support from the diaspora
Armenia's parliament has passed a dual nationality bill which allows the granting of citizenship to emigres in the huge Armenian diaspora.
Armenia has a population of 3.2 million but the diaspora is estimated to be some eight million. Many of them live in Russia, France, Iran and the US.

Ethnic Armenians who speak Armenian would benefit, as would foreigners married to an Armenian.

The diaspora's remittances are crucial for Armenia's economy.

Armenians backed dual citizenship in a November 2005 referendum. It abolished a clause in the constitution which barred dual nationality.

The Armenian diaspora is 2,000 years old, but its size increased dramatically after the mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks from 1915 to 1917.

According to the National Bank of Armenia, remittances from the diaspora are double the size of the country's budget.

Armenia is a small landlocked country. It still has bitter disputes with its neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan. The influence of Russia - formerly Armenia's colonial master - remains strong.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.

Armenian Parliament passed bill of dual citizenship in its first reading

20.02.2007
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On Tuesday Armenian Parliament adopted a bill, which supposes introduction of dual citizenship institute in the country. Presenting the bill Minister of Justice David Haroutunian said, according to the document Armenian citizens can admit citizenship of another country, which does not mean that it results in loss of Armenian citizenship. Besides, the minister said the legislative pack regulates issues of granting Armenian citizenship. Particularly, among other things, Armenian citizenship can admit those, who have reached 18 years old able to explain themselves in Armenian after getting introduced with the Constitution of the country; persons who have married with an Armenian citizen, as well as people who have performed exclusive services to Armenia; Armenians by origin.

According to the minister all persons with dual citizenship must informed about it the plenipotentiary body of the government. Otherwise, those who occupy or are trying to occupy certain posts will face criminal punishment, others-administrative fine.

The bill also regulates issues of passing military service of persons with dual citizenship. Particularly, they are freed of military service in Armenia if they have passed military service in other countries for at least 12 months, and alternative service for at least 18 months.

The minister informed that according to the bill persons with dual citizenship can participate in elections on the territory of Armenia. Haroutunian also said the President, Parliamentarians of the National Assembly of RA and members of the Constitutional Court cannot have dual citizenship, ‘Novosti-Armenia’ reports.

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Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.