Has Putin Downgraded Sergey Ivanov?
2007.03.10
Georgian Times
Russian President Putin’s decision to appoint Sergey Ivanov Vice-Premier of Russia prompted analogies with Georgian President Saakashvili’s move when he re-assigned Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili to the Ministry of Economy. The Georgian Times asked Ramaz Sakvarelidze, an independent political expert and a former foreign affairs adviser to President Saakashvili, to comment on Ivanov’s reassignment.
Q: What was the rationale behind the cabinet shuffle in Russia? Would you assess it as [Ivanov’s] advancement or downgrading?
A: The whole world would like to weigh in on it. No one has the exact answer. I think Putin got rid of him. Ivanov had a rising political rating and perhaps he would lay claim to Russia’s presidency, whether or not it complied with Putin’s preferences. Ivanov’s policy was based on the so-called ‘hawks’’ policy—or forceful methods in politics. This ran counter to Putin’s political track.
Putin’s policy is also based on aggression, but it is built on economic levers. Putin has taken a step that may seem pretty familiar to us: he reassigned a high-rated Defense Minister to a position which is honorable but also less popular. In his place, Putin appointed the Chief of Tax Authorities, who may uncover some financial disorders in the Defense Ministry and thus fund evidence of Ivanov’s criminal accountability.
On the other hand, the appointment of the Tax Authorities Chief to the Defense Structure suggests the ministry is going to lose its high profile. Ivanov slipped out of control – he was leading an independent policy that did not fully coincide with that of Putin.
Q: Should we blame Ivanov’s ‘independent playing’ for contributing to tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow?
A: Certainly, the Defense Ministry has done the lion’s share in deteriorating Georgian-Russian relations.
Q: Do you mean the Georgian Defense Ministry as well, or should we just pile blame on Ivanov?
A: The Georgian Defense Ministry also played its part. After the demise of the Soviet Union, the Russian Defense Ministry and Intelligence Administration [known as GRU in Russia – GT] took over control of the Caucasus region. The Defense Ministry of Russia was trying to restore the Russian empire, while Putin does not seek to reinstate the USSR. The Russian President hinges expansion plans on economic levers. This is why there is infighting between President Putin and the Defense Minister. Putin does not want the conflict to erupt, as that would foil his plans of entering Europe. If Russia plays a positive role in regional conflict resolution, Europe will welcome Russia with applause.
Q: Let us leave Russia for a while and talk about Georgian-Armenian relations. Quite recently, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a contract to launch a new regional railway project. Armenia again found itself an outsider and expressed its protests. Does that mean we are going to upset Armenia?
A: Georgia does not owe anything to Armenia. From history we remember that in critical periods when Georgia was dependent on Armenia, Yerevan took steps that served its national interests best but which would compromise those of ours. Abkhazian events and its foreign policy choices in Europe are good examples of this.
Georgia should not feel remorse if it prioritizes its national interests. Armenia should realize soon that it has to become friendlier towards its neighbors. It has yet to be made clear what position Yerevan had towards Armenian military groups during the Abkhazia war. I think Georgia has made more good-neighborly steps towards Armenia than it was necessary. All three republics of the South Caucasus should be interested in playing a common geopolitical game. Therefore, we should forget old stories and look ahead. Georgia should think of developing more harmonic relations in the future. The same goes for Armenia. Armenia is running out of time. If we are talking about Russia’s plans related to conflict settlement, then there is a high risk that Armenia, with its current policy, will soon be deadlocked.
Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.
Georgian Times
A chilling warning below from Ramaz Sakvarelidze, an independent political expert and a former foreign affairs adviser to President Saakashvili,"there is a high risk that Armenia, with its current policy, will soon be deadlocked".
“Georgia does not owe anything to Armenia,” says Ramaz SakvarelidzeRussian President Putin’s decision to appoint Sergey Ivanov Vice-Premier of Russia prompted analogies with Georgian President Saakashvili’s move when he re-assigned Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili to the Ministry of Economy. The Georgian Times asked Ramaz Sakvarelidze, an independent political expert and a former foreign affairs adviser to President Saakashvili, to comment on Ivanov’s reassignment.
Q: What was the rationale behind the cabinet shuffle in Russia? Would you assess it as [Ivanov’s] advancement or downgrading?
A: The whole world would like to weigh in on it. No one has the exact answer. I think Putin got rid of him. Ivanov had a rising political rating and perhaps he would lay claim to Russia’s presidency, whether or not it complied with Putin’s preferences. Ivanov’s policy was based on the so-called ‘hawks’’ policy—or forceful methods in politics. This ran counter to Putin’s political track.
Putin’s policy is also based on aggression, but it is built on economic levers. Putin has taken a step that may seem pretty familiar to us: he reassigned a high-rated Defense Minister to a position which is honorable but also less popular. In his place, Putin appointed the Chief of Tax Authorities, who may uncover some financial disorders in the Defense Ministry and thus fund evidence of Ivanov’s criminal accountability.
On the other hand, the appointment of the Tax Authorities Chief to the Defense Structure suggests the ministry is going to lose its high profile. Ivanov slipped out of control – he was leading an independent policy that did not fully coincide with that of Putin.
Q: Should we blame Ivanov’s ‘independent playing’ for contributing to tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow?
A: Certainly, the Defense Ministry has done the lion’s share in deteriorating Georgian-Russian relations.
Q: Do you mean the Georgian Defense Ministry as well, or should we just pile blame on Ivanov?
A: The Georgian Defense Ministry also played its part. After the demise of the Soviet Union, the Russian Defense Ministry and Intelligence Administration [known as GRU in Russia – GT] took over control of the Caucasus region. The Defense Ministry of Russia was trying to restore the Russian empire, while Putin does not seek to reinstate the USSR. The Russian President hinges expansion plans on economic levers. This is why there is infighting between President Putin and the Defense Minister. Putin does not want the conflict to erupt, as that would foil his plans of entering Europe. If Russia plays a positive role in regional conflict resolution, Europe will welcome Russia with applause.
Q: Let us leave Russia for a while and talk about Georgian-Armenian relations. Quite recently, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a contract to launch a new regional railway project. Armenia again found itself an outsider and expressed its protests. Does that mean we are going to upset Armenia?
A: Georgia does not owe anything to Armenia. From history we remember that in critical periods when Georgia was dependent on Armenia, Yerevan took steps that served its national interests best but which would compromise those of ours. Abkhazian events and its foreign policy choices in Europe are good examples of this.
Georgia should not feel remorse if it prioritizes its national interests. Armenia should realize soon that it has to become friendlier towards its neighbors. It has yet to be made clear what position Yerevan had towards Armenian military groups during the Abkhazia war. I think Georgia has made more good-neighborly steps towards Armenia than it was necessary. All three republics of the South Caucasus should be interested in playing a common geopolitical game. Therefore, we should forget old stories and look ahead. Georgia should think of developing more harmonic relations in the future. The same goes for Armenia. Armenia is running out of time. If we are talking about Russia’s plans related to conflict settlement, then there is a high risk that Armenia, with its current policy, will soon be deadlocked.
Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.
Labels: Armenia and Georgia
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