Russia's Shadow Empire

Saturday, March 11, 2006; Page A19
Washington Post
By Ana Palacio and Daniel Twining

Since 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.
[...]
Russian political and military influence also looms in the shadows of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Opposing armies that fought a bloody war over the disputed enclave in the 1990s now shoot at each other from trenches across a "no-man's land" more reminiscent of Flanders in 1916 than the European neighborhood in 2005. This barely frozen conflict threatens a hot war that would devastate the region.

It is also the place where a breakthrough is perhaps most likely. Western governments could support a settlement there in which Armenia returned to Azerbaijan the occupied provinces surrounding the disputed territory and allowed Azerbaijani refugees to resettle there. Nagorno-Karabakh could enjoy full autonomy until its ultimate status was decided by democratic referendum at some future date. In return for Azerbaijan's cooperation in ending a conflict that threatens its growing prosperity, the West should welcome closer partnership with that country as it moves forward with reform, end residual sanctions against Azerbaijan dating from the 1991-94 war, require closure of the Russian bases on Armenian territory that threaten Azerbaijan, offer a mini-Marshall Plan for the entire South Caucasus and put these countries on a path to Europe.

Russian bases are welcome in Armenia not as a threat to Azerbaijan but as a protection against threats coming from Turkey which has the second largest Army in NATO. One should ask the question why does Turkey have to keep such a large army at a great economic expense? Where is the threat to Turkey coming from? Is it from the little impoverished Armenia already blockaded by Turkey? No! Turkey has not repented or even recognized its Genocide of Armenians in Anatolia from 1915-1923 where 1.5 million innocent Armenians perished. The present government has openly embarked on an active campaign to overturn the recognitions of the Armenian Genocide made by sovereign countries. It is denigrating the overwhelming majority of Scholars who support the Genocide. It is revising the history of the period to erase the Genocide. Now what kind of comfort does that provide to Armenia?

[...]

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.