A Friend Full of Gas

January 12, 2006
Kommersant
By Alexander Kabakov

[...]
[...]. Unlike loudly independent Ukraine and arrogant Georgia, Armenia has had an unswervingly pro-Russian orientation. A faithful friend might expect an allowance to be made in the form of cheap gas in light of the friendly feelings and good behavior. But then again… It turns out that obedient Armenia is being charged as much as willful (even pro-American!) Georgia. Can't Russia be cajoled somehow? It could do Armenia a good deed if it wanted to.
[...]
Of all the possible explanations for Russia's behavior, one cynical one sticks in the mind. It is that Armenia has been used to lend credence to the official Russian account of the causes of the gas war with Ukraine.[...].

Leaving aside ethical fine points, the plan makes sense. But, as it often happens with Russian foreign policy strategies, they failed to reckon with at least one possible scenario that will completely foil their plans. What will happen just as soon as that pipe from Iran stretches onto Armenian soil? Russia had a faithful strategic ally, whose faithfulness was controlled by Gazprom. Now there will be one more offended and annoyed state in the Caucasus independent of Gazprom. It is well known that there are those who are always ready to soothe the offended and even help them materially. In any case, Armenia already has a plan for individual partnership with NATO and money is already on its way from America.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.