Europe is going to need Turkey
OCTOBER 9, 2005
International Herald Tribune
Opinion
By Giles Merritt
(secretary-general of Friends of Europe and editor of the new policy journal Europe's World.)
In most European countries there are issues too sensitive to be left to the voters; capital punishment is one, Turkey's membership of the European Union is another. In both cases there is a discreet consensus between the main political parties that their electorates would, if consulted, make the wrong decision.
[...]
Across Europe, opinion on Turkey ranges from lukewarm to downright hostile. In EU newcomer countries like Poland and Hungary, narrow majorities welcome Turkish membership. In Spain, Portugal and Britain, although something like a third are against, more than 40 percent are in favor. At the other end of the spectrum, only a tenth of Austrians want Turkey in, with four-fifths adamantly opposed. In Germany three-quarters are in the no camp.
It's never easy to tell whether politicians who declare themselves against Turkish membership are motivated by objective considerations or by opportunism and demagoguery. In any case, they were wrong to oppose the opening of negotiations that will most probably last for 15 years.
[...]
When the Berlin Wall fell, my views changed entirely. [...]. The new situation clearly made it essential to bring Turkey into the European bloc.
A glance at a map says it all. Turkey lies at the center of some of the world's most volatile regions [...]. Turkey is already a regional power that exerts a strong stabilizing influence on neighboring countries, so it is in Europe's long-term interest that Turkey should become firmly anchored in the EU.
[...]
Turkey is generally portrayed as a poor country whose many peasant farmers will place intolerable financial strains on the EU. Yet the economic advantages of bringing Turkey in are far more persuasive. By 2020, Europe's active work force will be less than half the population, whereas Turkey's will be two-thirds. Europe needs Turkey's increasingly well-educated workers, and could do with the growing economic and industrial muscle of a country that will soon be as populous as Germany.
[...]. In 15 years' time, the Union will by then have shrunk to less than 5 percent of the global population. Europe is going to need as much new blood as it can get. [...].
If Turkey's European aspirations had to be abandoned, the outlook would be worryingly uncertain. On the one hand, Islamic extremism might feed on Western rejection. On the other, Turkey's powerful generals, always more popular than its politicians, who command a million-strong army, might reverse the present trend and begin to call the tune. Turkey as a loose cannon in one of the world's most geopolitically sensitive regions doesn't bear thinking about.
Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.
International Herald Tribune
Opinion
By Giles Merritt
(secretary-general of Friends of Europe and editor of the new policy journal Europe's World.)
In most European countries there are issues too sensitive to be left to the voters; capital punishment is one, Turkey's membership of the European Union is another. In both cases there is a discreet consensus between the main political parties that their electorates would, if consulted, make the wrong decision.
[...]
Across Europe, opinion on Turkey ranges from lukewarm to downright hostile. In EU newcomer countries like Poland and Hungary, narrow majorities welcome Turkish membership. In Spain, Portugal and Britain, although something like a third are against, more than 40 percent are in favor. At the other end of the spectrum, only a tenth of Austrians want Turkey in, with four-fifths adamantly opposed. In Germany three-quarters are in the no camp.
It's never easy to tell whether politicians who declare themselves against Turkish membership are motivated by objective considerations or by opportunism and demagoguery. In any case, they were wrong to oppose the opening of negotiations that will most probably last for 15 years.
[...]
When the Berlin Wall fell, my views changed entirely. [...]. The new situation clearly made it essential to bring Turkey into the European bloc.
A glance at a map says it all. Turkey lies at the center of some of the world's most volatile regions [...]. Turkey is already a regional power that exerts a strong stabilizing influence on neighboring countries, so it is in Europe's long-term interest that Turkey should become firmly anchored in the EU.
[...]
Turkey is generally portrayed as a poor country whose many peasant farmers will place intolerable financial strains on the EU. Yet the economic advantages of bringing Turkey in are far more persuasive. By 2020, Europe's active work force will be less than half the population, whereas Turkey's will be two-thirds. Europe needs Turkey's increasingly well-educated workers, and could do with the growing economic and industrial muscle of a country that will soon be as populous as Germany.
[...]. In 15 years' time, the Union will by then have shrunk to less than 5 percent of the global population. Europe is going to need as much new blood as it can get. [...].
If Turkey's European aspirations had to be abandoned, the outlook would be worryingly uncertain. On the one hand, Islamic extremism might feed on Western rejection. On the other, Turkey's powerful generals, always more popular than its politicians, who command a million-strong army, might reverse the present trend and begin to call the tune. Turkey as a loose cannon in one of the world's most geopolitically sensitive regions doesn't bear thinking about.
Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.
posted by Vahe Balabanian at 8:26 AM
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