REPORT: NO BIG GAINS TO ARMENIA IF TURKEY LIFTS BLOCKADE

Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Eurasianet
Haroutiun Khachatrian 8/09/05
(Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.)

A controversial report [...] presented July 13 by the Armenian-European Political Legal Advice Center (AEPLAC), a prominent think tank sponsored by the European Union [...] contended that Armenia would see its economy expand by only $20-23 million annually, or just 0.67 percent of its current Gross Domestic Product, if Turkey decided to lift its 12-year blockade of the Armenian border. Over the next five years, Armenia’s GDP would see an additional 2.7 percent increase over the country’s level in 2004.
[...]
The report’s findings caught many Armenian academics and journalists by surprise. A widely cited 2000 World Bank study predicted that Armenia would see a 30-percent increase in GDP if both Turkey and Azerbaijan lifted their economic embargos. Since then, the Armenian economy has experienced impressive growth. [...].
[...]
The AEPLAC authors said they took various factors into account, including the 2000 World Bank study and the potential re-entry of Armenian companies into Middle Eastern markets.[...].
[...]
Although the authors of the AEPLAC report state that it was commissioned by the Armenian government, Trade and Economic Development Minister Karen Chshmaritian has denied that the government had anything to do with the preparation of the document.[...].

[...] Chshmaritian told reporters, the government is conducting its own research into the economic impact of Turkey lifting its border blockade. A report is due out later this year, he said.

Note: Above are excerpts from the article. The full article appears here. Clarifications and comments by me are contained in {}. Deletions are marked by [...]. The bold emphasis is mine.